Poker Odds
Probability is a huge factor in Texas Hold em. Players use odds to determine their actions. The chances of finishing a flush or a straight, the probability of getting an overcard, the percentage of times you're going to flop a set to match your pocket pair are all important factors in poker.
There is an easy formula that you can use to calculate the odds of completing a draw or making a poker hand after the flop.
- Step 1: Determine how many outs you have. An out is the number of cards left in the deck that will improve your hand.
- Step 2: Multiply your outs by two and add a % after the result.
- Step 3 (optional): Double this number to see your odds with two cards to come
For example you flop a flush draw and know that if you make the flush, you’ll win the hand.
- Calculate the number of outs - Since you know 4 of the 13 flush cards, you can determine that you have 9 outs left in the deck.
- You multiply your 9 outs by 2, which tells you that you have an 18% chance to make a flush with one card to come.
- You multiply 18% by two to determine that you have a 36% or 3 to 1 chance of completing your flush by the river.
The above formula isn't exactly precise but it will give you a close enough number to base many of your decisions on.
Probability of Catching an Out
| Outs | Turn (%) | River (%) | Turn or River |
| 20 | 42.6 | 43.5 | 67.5% |
| 19 | 40.4 | 41.3 | 65.0% |
| 18 | 38.3 | 39.1 | 62.4% |
| 17 | 36.2 | 37.0 | 59.8% |
| 16 | 34.0 | 34.8 | 57.0% |
| 15 | 31.9 | 32.6 | 54.1% |
| 14 | 29.8 | 30.4 | 51.2% |
| 13 | 27.7 | 28.3 | 48.1% |
| 12 | 25.5 | 26.1 | 45.0% |
| 11 | 23.4 | 23.9 | 41.7% |
| 10 | 21.3 | 21.7 | 38.4% |
| 9 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 35.0% |
| 8 | 17.0 | 17.4 | 31.5% |
| 7 | 14.9 | 15.2 | 27.8% |
| 6 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 24.1% |
| 5 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 20.4% |
| 4 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 16.5% |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 12.5% |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 8.4% |
| 1 | 2.1. | 2.2 | 4.3% |
Pot Odds
Now that you know how to calculate poker odds in terms of hand odds, you will also need to calculate the pot odds. This is simply the ratio of the amount of money in the pot to how much money it costs to call. For example if there is $100 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, your pot odds are 100:10, or 10:1. If there is $50 in the pot and it takes $10 to call, then your pot odds are 50:10 or 5:1. The higher the ratio, the better your pot odds are.
If you calculate your hand odds and compare that percentage to the pot odds, the difference will help you decide whether or not you should make the call. By following the fundamental principle of playing hands only when your pot odds are greater than your hand odds will ensure that you only have your money in the pot when you are getting the best return.
